Prairieville, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

396
FXUS64 KLIX 141958
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
258 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

A strong and persistent deep layer ridge axis will continue to
dominate the region through Friday night. Ample subsidence in the
mid-levels will lead to both mid-level warming and the development
of a strong inversion around 850mb. This will keep skies largely
clear and temperatures warmer than average through the period.
Average highs are generally in the low to mid 80s this time of
year, but highs will be a good 5 to 10 degrees warmer in the upper
80s and lower 90s each day. Clear and dry conditions at night will
allow overnight lows to fall to near the dewpoint in the lower 70s
each night. The inversion will also deepen as temperatures cool,
and this will allow for some low stratus and broken to overcast
skies to form each night as the boundary layer becomes more
decoupled from the stronger winds aloft. These low clouds will be
most prevalent in the early morning hours around sunrise when the
inversion is strongest. The cloud cover will quickly clear by
mid-morning as temperatures warm quickly. Overall, a rather benign
stretch of weather is expected in the short term period.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

A slight weakening of the deep layer ridge over the region will
take place on Saturday as a fast moving southern stream shortwave
trough slides through the Lower Mississippi Valley. A weak frontal
boundary will slip into central Mississippi, but is expected to
weaken and dissipate before pushing further south into the
forecast area. However, the weakening of the mid-level inversion
and a slight increase in PWATS to around 1.3 inches will be
sufficient to spark some isolated convection across the northern
third of the forecast area in Southwest Mississippi and parts of
Louisiana to the north of I-12 Saturday afternoon. Looking at the
sounding profiles for the day, fairly steep low level lapse rates
and DCAPE values of around 1000 J/KG are supportive of a gusty wind
potential as deepest updraft cores collapse. Any convection will
quickly dissipate shortly after sunset as temperatures start to
cool.

By Sunday, any hint of the frontal boundary or trough axis will be
long gone as the deep layer ridge rebuilds across the region. The
end result will be a return to the hot and muggy conditions as
highs climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s each afternoon and
lows cool to the dewpoint in the low to mid 70s. Increased
subsidence aloft and a strong mid- level inversion around 850mb
will inhibit cloud development, so rain chances will be near zero
through Tuesday night across the region. As seen the past few
night and through the short term period, the inversion will deepen
each night as temperatures cool, and this will allow for low
stratus and mostly cloudy skies to form during the late overnight
and early morning hours each day. This cloud cover will quickly
dissipate in the mid-morning hours each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

A dry and stable airmass across the area will keep VFR conditions
in place through at least 06z at all of the terminals. However, an
inversion will reform tonight as temperatures cool, and this will
allow for redevelopment of a low stratus deck at all of the
terminals between 06z and 14z. Ceilings will dip to between 1000
and 1500 feet resulting in prevailing MVFR and fuel alternate
restrictions. However, further strengthening of the inversion at
MCB where boundary layer winds are expected to be weakest should
allow for IFR ceilings of 300 to 800 feet to form. Some fog may
also develop and briefly reduce visibilities to 2 to 3 miles, but
the low ceilings have a higher probability of occurrence. After
14z, drier air will rapidly mix into the boundary layer and
prevailing VFR conditions are expected to be in place at all of
the terminals by 16z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Onshore flow will once again become more amplified tonight as
boundary layer mixing increases with the cooling temperatures
aloft. Winds will rise back into advisory range of 20 to 25 knots
over the far western waters and a small craft advisory is in
effect from 10 pm through 10 am tonight into tomorrow morning. The
remainder of the waters will see winds increase to 15 to 20 knots
prompting exercise caution headlines for tonight. A weakening of
the pressure gradient over the Gulf will begin to take hold
tomorrow as the surface high becomes the more dominant feature
in the region, and this will allow for lower onshore winds of 10
to 15 knots through early next week. Seas will also diminish from
4 to 6 feet over portions of the open Gulf waters tonight to 2 to
4 feet by tomorrow. These calmer seas will persist into early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  70  90  74  91 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  71  91  73  90 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  73  89  75  89 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  73  85  73  85 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  71  84  72  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
     Thursday for GMZ550-570.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
     Thursday for GMZ570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG